Climate Change, Peak Oil and Food Security

Report from Manchester's new Food and Wellbeing Group:

Oil supplies are peaking, meaning that half of the world’s predicted oils supplies have been consumed, and that for the first time in human history, demand for oil is outstripping our ability to be able to supply it. The result of this is that oil prices are beginning to skyrocket. Since the western way of life is energy intensive, and highly dependent on oil, rising prices caused by peak oil mean that the cost of living is going to increase for everybody. Since we are locked into a globalised food system, dependent on oil based chemicals, and heavy machinery, and with high food miles, the cost of food is certain to increase dramatically as a result of peak oil prices rises.

The peak oil issue is coupled to climate change, which is resulting in large areas of marginalised land becoming agriculturally unproductive. On top of this, the world’s population continues to expand. The outcome of these combined factors is almost certain to be increased food poverty, both overseas and also in the UK.

Localisation of the food system, and conversion to non-industrial food production offers solutions to the interrelated issues of peak oil and climate change. In light of this, Tim McMahon from the Sustainable Neighbourhoods Pool is working on an agenda to increase the amount of land available in Manchester for food production.

Tim informed the group that the average amount of allotment space per person in Manchester, has recently been increased to 14 square feet – this is about the equivalent of two adult males lying side by side on the ground!
 
Action: Tim is has provided more information about how much additional land has been provided per person, and how many extra plots this equates to in the City. Click here to see these figures.
 
The question was asked of the group, “Should Manchester be less dependent on international trade?” I shall be sure to be asking this question again in future meetings, as I believe that it is a question that is vital to the future well-being of citizens in this country.
 

MCC recently produced a paper called The Principles of Tackling Climate Change in Manchester with the intention to introduce the issue of climate change and to outline the principles behind tackling climate change in Manchester. Tim McMahon informed the group that Manchester City Council's Green City Team are writing a Climate Change strategy, but they are unclear about when it will be produced. According to the Sustainable Neighbourhoods Partnership work plan the Climate Change Strategy should be produce by 2008 (although this date may well change, as it's production has been delayed). In addition they are producing what is being described as a ‘mini Stern’ report, in order to investigate the likely effects of climate change on the city’s economy. The mini-STERN report will feed into the Climate Change Strategy. It is thought the production of the mini-STERN report is the course of the delay of the Climate Change Strategy.

 
Tim is working with other Manchester people in order to set up a local food production ‘writing group’. The plan is to produce well researched documentation in support of the urgent need for localised and urban food production.
 
I informed the meeting that there is an intention to recruit more people onto the Food Futures board. I have already discussed with members of the board, the possibility of including somebody with an interest in climate change, and possibly with a scientific background, because this issue is not being very clearly addressed by Food Futures yet, in my opinion.   
 
It was agreed that I should make further inquiries with Food Futures, to ascertain what Food Futures could hope to achieve by having a climate change specialist involved on the board, or in a subgroup. With this information, it will be more likely that the Food and Wellbeing group will be able to assist in identifying suitable candidates for this role.

Additional Allotment provision in Manchester:

    Summary:

  • The current allotment allocation in Manchester is 59.11 hectares, or on average 13.99 sq ft per person. This is above the national standard, which is 13.45 sq ft per person.  

  • Extra provision in Manchester will be an additional 3.91 hectares to 68.02. hectares. This will mean on average 14.96 sq ft per person.

  • This is about the size of two fully grown males lying side by side!!

  • There will be an additional 316 new plots.

  • There are currently 2098 plots, and this will rise to 2414 plots.

 

These figures are summarised from the following notes, which were provided to me by Tim McMahon from the Sustainable Neighbourhood Pool on July 18th:

The National Society of Allotment and Leisure Gardeners set a national standard for allotments provision which is:

20 plots / 1000 households which =
1 plot / 200 people =
0.125 hectares / 1000 people =
13.45 sq ft / person

Current Allotment Provision in Manchester is 59.11 hectares which is:

0.13 hectares / 1000 people (assuming 454,692 people in Manchester) =
0.00013 hectares / person =
13.99 sq ft / person (there are 107,639 sq ft per hectare)

so we are currently above the national standard, however the 1970 Thorpe Report suggests that the National Standard should be 0.2 hectares / 1000 people

Extra provision in Manchester will be an additional 3.91 hectares to 68.02 hectares which is:

0.134 hectares / 1000 people =
14.96 sq ft / person

In terms of plots this means that there will be an additional 316 plots across the city. This is worked out through this calculation:

59.11 ha / 2098 which is current number of plots = 0.02817 ha / plot and applied the (A) / (C) = (B) equation

68.02 ha / 2414 which is the additional number of plots = 0.02817 ha / plot

So in answer there will be an extra about 316 new allotment plots if my calculations are correct, but this is still below what Thorpe recommends:

0.2 hectares / 1000 people =
21.53 sq ft / 1 person =
the size of a double bed!!
Hope that's ok???